In 2024, China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) sales reached 12.866 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35.5%. Although the growth rate slightly slowed down compared to 2023, the sales of domestic new energy passenger cars accelerated, with the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) statistics showing a growth as high as 39.7%, and the growth based on the number of vehicles insured was even more remarkable, reaching 48.24%. Specifically, the number of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) insured saw a significant increase, with the growth rate reaching 91.69%, 7 percentage points higher than that in 2023. The growth of pure electric vehicles should not be underestimated either, with the sales growth rate at 27.72%, nearly 4 percentage points higher than that in 2023, indicating that the market prospects for pure electric vehicles remain optimistic and vehicle manufacturers do not need to rely too much on PHEVs and range-extended models. In terms of market landscape, BYD continued to maintain its strong position, while Tesla’s growth rate was somewhat lagging. General Motors also achieved relatively fast growth in the Chinese market. Although the overall market situation remained stable, Geely has successfully completed its new energy transition, and other automakers such as Chery and Changan are also closely following. The rise of emerging enterprises is also noteworthy, with brands like Huawei and Xiaomi gradually taking on important market responsibilities. CAAM estimates that NEV sales will reach 16 million units by 2025, while the Passenger Car Association predicts it to be around 15 million units. In contrast, the author believes that the market’s assessment of sales may be too pessimistic, especially regarding the market expectations for domestic passenger cars. Against the backdrop of the shift from fuel to electric vehicles, consumers’ car purchasing psychology is changing rapidly. Although the export situation is not good, the domestic market still has huge potential. It is expected that by 2025, NEV sales will reach 17 million units, with an overall growth rate of 32%, and the number of new energy passenger cars insured is expected to reach 15 million units. However, in response to trade barriers in overseas markets, such as the EU’s imposition of punitive tariffs of 17%-35.3% on Chinese-made electric vehicles and the US’s additional 10% tax on imported cars from China, vehicle manufacturers need to pay more attention to the development of PHEVs and range-extended models when seeking exports. Overall, the growth rate of NEV exports is expected to be only about 10%, and future market competition will be more intense.
