Over 10 MW Onshore Wind Turbines Begin Mass Production
As of March 17, 2025, a weekly report released by Ping An Securities highlights significant developments in the power equipment and new energy sectors. The report notes that onshore wind turbines with capacities exceeding 10 MW are entering mass production, amidst fierce competition in photovoltaic (PV) technology routes.
Market Review of New Energy Sector
During the week of March 10 to March 14, 2025, the wind power index (866044.WI) increased by 1.93%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.34 percentage points. Currently, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the wind power sector stands at approximately 20.28 times. The Shenwan photovoltaic equipment index (801735.SI) rose by 1.15%, with the photovoltaic cell module index climbing by 2.07%. However, the photovoltaic processing equipment index fell by 0.62%, while the auxiliary materials index increased by 1.28%, bringing the overall P/E ratio for the photovoltaic sector to around 34.73 times. The energy storage index (884790.WI) saw a rise of 3.11%, with the current overall P/E ratio for the energy storage sector at 29.1 times. The hydrogen energy index (8841063.WI) grew by 1.75%, with a P/E ratio of 32.21 times.
Key Topic: Onshore Wind Turbines Over 10 MW
On March 9, the first 11 MW turbine tower for the China Energy Construction Corporation’s 1 million-kilowatt wind power project in Toksun County was successfully installed. This project plans to install 23 wind turbines, each with a capacity of 11 MW, indicating that mass installation of 11 MW turbines is imminent. Recently, several domestic projects featuring onshore wind turbines with capacities exceeding 10 MW have gained approval, including the 500 MW wind-to-hydrogen and ammonia integrated demonstration project in Tongliao City, which plans to install 40 turbines, each with a capacity of 12.5 MW. Additionally, the Shibeishan wind power project in Jieyang has indicated a preference for 13.6 MW turbines.
These developments signify a continuing trend toward larger domestic onshore wind turbines. Major wind turbine manufacturers are launching products with capacities over 10 MW. However, we believe that while the trend towards larger turbines may strengthen the competitive advantage of domestic products over foreign ones, it is unlikely to change the existing low-cost, homogeneous competition landscape in the onshore wind sector without robust policy support. Hence, we foresee that the competitive dynamics within the domestic onshore wind turbine market will remain largely unchanged for the foreseeable future.
Photovoltaic: Intense Competition Among Technologies
Recent data from the Zhangbei demonstration project led by the State Grid Jibei Wind-Solar-Storage Integration Company indicates that from December 2024 to February 2025, the average power generation per watt from Trina Solar’s N-type TOPCon modules surpassed that of BC modules by 4.18%. Furthermore, Longi Green Energy has reported findings from an 8-month performance comparison of PV modules on a commercial building rooftop in Xi’an, Shaanxi. The Hi-MO9 modules, utilizing second-generation BC technology, outperformed the TOPCon modules in both efficiency and cumulative power generation, achieving a 7.74% higher cumulative generation than TOPCon. These results highlight the ongoing debate regarding the performance of different technological routes, including BC and TOPCon.
In terms of conversion efficiency, since Longi introduced mass-produced BC second-generation battery technology with an efficiency of 24.8%, leading companies such as JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, JA Solar, and Tongwei have also launched TOPCon technology modules achieving the same efficiency. This indicates that competition in conversion efficiency remains intense among different technology routes. Due to the controversies surrounding power generation performance and the race for conversion efficiency, the adoption pace of BC technology may face delays, leaving the competition in PV battery technology still unresolved.
Energy Storage and Hydrogen Energy Updates
The Sichuan Provincial Development and Reform Commission has officially announced a new pricing mechanism for energy storage, stating that user-side energy storage projects that begin operation before December 31, 2026, will be exempt from capacity demand fees for two years. These fees, which comprise 15%-30% of commercial users’ electricity costs, can significantly reduce the financial burden on user-side energy storage, enhancing expected returns. This policy aims to lower operational barriers for energy storage in Sichuan, potentially stimulating growth in energy storage capacity in the province.
While there are concerns about the impact of the withdrawal of strong supportive policies on energy storage installations, various regions are actively exploring policies to encourage market competition and support user-side energy storage. We believe that energy storage plays an essential role in enhancing the flexibility and stability of the new power system, and ongoing explorations in different regions are likely to support both the quality and quantity of energy storage installations.
Investment Recommendations
In the wind power sector, the domestic offshore wind market is showing positive trends, with promising export conditions and an acceleration in the commercialization of floating wind technology. We recommend focusing on companies like Mingyang Smart Energy, Dongfang Cable, and Yaxing Anchor Chain. The demand for onshore wind power is expected to exceed expectations, stabilizing and increasing turbine prices, making companies like Goldwind Technology and Unida Co. noteworthy.
In the photovoltaic sector, the trend towards BC battery technology is becoming evident. We suggest keeping an eye on companies such as Dier Laser, Longi Green Energy, and Aiko Solar. Additionally, monitoring policy guidance and industry self-regulation could lead to improved competitive conditions in components and silicon materials, with companies like Tongwei being of interest.
In the energy storage sector, the competition landscape overseas is favorable, with strong growth in demand. Companies like Sungrow Power Supply and Sungen Electric should be highlighted. The residential storage market is diversifying, and we recommend focusing on companies like Deye Technology, which are solidly positioned in emerging markets. In the hydrogen energy sector, companies actively involved in electrolyzer technology, such as Huaguang Huaneng, and leading fuel cell system participants like Yihua Tong should be monitored.
Risk Warnings
1) There is a risk that electricity demand may not grow as expected. The wind and solar sectors are heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions and electricity demand, which could affect the pace of new energy development.
2) Increased competition risk among certain segments. With the dual carbon policy in place, more companies are entering the wind and solar manufacturing sectors, potentially leading to heightened competition in certain areas.
3) The risk of intensified trade protectionism. Domestic photovoltaic manufacturing and wind power components are competitive globally, and increased trade protection could negatively impact exporting companies.
4) The risk that technological advances and cost reductions may not meet expectations. Offshore wind remains in a transition period towards cost parity, and any slowdown in cost reductions could adversely affect its development prospects. The advancement of various new photovoltaic battery technologies also relies on continued technological progress and cost reductions, presenting additional risks.
(Ping An Securities: Pi Xiu, Su Ke, Zhang Zhiyao)
