Photovoltaic module prices have surged to 0.8 yuan/W, leaving investors struggling to secure supplies. According to Li Lei, a key player in a leading domestic photovoltaic company, the market dynamics have drastically shifted. Prior to the Spring Festival, the price of photovoltaic modules had fallen below 0.6 yuan/W. By early March 2025, the spot prices for distributed photovoltaic modules rose to between 0.7 yuan/W and 0.8 yuan/W, with some high-efficiency products from top firms nearing 0.9 yuan/W. Prices have shifted from fluctuating weekly to changing daily, and Li anticipates that mainstream module prices could soon surpass 0.9 yuan/W.
Xu Biao, an investor in distributed photovoltaic systems in the Central Plains region, echoed similar sentiments, noting a significant change in the market landscape compared to 2024. That year, prices consistently declined from over 1 yuan/W at the beginning of the year to below 0.6 yuan/W by year-end, with some manufacturers resorting to discount sales to clear inventory. However, since the start of 2025, the market has seen a reversal in this trend, attributed to the “4.30” policy, which has altered the supply-demand relationship, resulting in a gradual price increase.
On January 17, 2025, the National Energy Administration issued the “Management Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation,” commonly referred to as the “4.30” policy. This policy stipulates that photovoltaic power station projects completed and connected to the grid by April 30 can still enjoy full grid access, while projects connected after this date are limited to self-consumption or partial grid sales. This regulatory change has significantly impacted the market, leading to tighter supply for popular module models.
As demand surges, investors are in a race against time to finalize projects for full grid access before the April 30 deadline. In March, Xu and his team are hastening project progress to secure higher electricity prices and returns during this policy window. Furthermore, starting May 31, 2025, all new distributed photovoltaic projects must participate in electricity spot market trading, marking the end of subsidies.
In the current competitive environment, high-priced orders are prioritized for supply, while lower-priced orders may face delays. Li noted that even less efficient or older products are gaining attention in the current environment of scarcity, with some customers willing to accept these options just to secure supplies. Due to the diverse specifications of orders, companies must flexibly allocate resources based on inventory availability. Customers are increasingly favoring models known for reliability in delivery and higher efficiency.
An industry insider highlighted the growing supply constraints, with upstream material suppliers (such as silicon manufacturers, battery factories, and glass frame manufacturers) also facing increased demand, leading to shortages and rising material costs. This cost increase is being passed on to module manufacturers, forcing them to raise prices accordingly.
According to reports from LONGi Green Energy, the surge in orders in March has led to the launch of the Hi-MO X10 anti-dust module, which is already fully booked for April production. Under normal conditions, the top five companies in China’s distributed photovoltaic sector typically ship around 5 GW of modules per month. However, due to the surge in orders caused by the rush to install, shipments may reach between 25 GW and 30 GW in February 2025, approximately four times the amount from the same period last year.
Li anticipates that the supply tightness in the photovoltaic module market will continue throughout the first quarter. Even with favorable pricing, securing spot supply may remain challenging for investors. In early February, the market showed a clear preference for higher efficiency modules, such as the LONGi Hi-MO X10 series, which boasts superior efficiency and performance.
With limited rooftop space, high-efficiency modules can deliver greater installed capacity. For instance, using a 10,000 square meter rooftop, the Hi-MO X10 (660W) can generate 189,000 kWh more electricity annually compared to the TOPCon module (630W), resulting in increased profits over 30 years. This means a rooftop can accommodate 6% more module capacity, effectively doubling its value.
Additionally, the Hi-MO X10 has been dubbed a “three-proof” module due to its HPBC 2.0 battery technology, which provides fire resistance, shading resistance, and dust resistance, making it extremely popular among commercial and industrial solar owners. On the day of its launch, production capacity for the product was fully reserved for March and April.
In the current market climate, Xu’s company is prioritizing high-efficiency modules. While the payback period for projects may lengthen, ensuring long-term profitability and competitiveness leads them to consider the overall output efficiency of the modules. Xu’s team prefers the LONGi Hi-MO X10 despite its price being around 0.85 yuan/W, which is 0.1 yuan/W higher than competitors. The higher efficiency translates into greater economic benefits, making it a compelling investment choice.
This trend illustrates that investors increasingly favor advanced manufacturing capacity and high-efficiency modules. Driven by the “4.30” and “5.31” policy deadlines, the demand for high-efficiency modules is intensifying, further straining supply.
In this rush to install, Li noted that distributors can still profit from timely deliveries, even if costs slightly increase. A statement from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association urged companies to halt internal competition, highlighting that the minimum production cost of photovoltaic modules had dropped to 0.68 yuan/W in October 2024. However, under pressure from overcapacity and technological advancements, companies continue to engage in price wars to secure orders.
As the recent rush to install continues, prices for upstream materials have also risen, pushing the minimum production cost of photovoltaic modules above 0.72 yuan. Li stated that with the rising prices, pure price competition is becoming ineffective. In the future, companies will place greater emphasis on product performance and value.
Li believes that the demand surge since February is primarily a short-term phenomenon driven by policy-induced concentrated purchases of high-efficiency modules. As the rush to install progresses, he expects market demand to gradually decline by June 2025, leading to a stabilization of module prices as outdated capacities are phased out and supply-demand dynamics improve.
(Li Lei and Xu Biao are pseudonyms used at the request of the interview subjects.)
