BYD’s “5-Minute Charge for 400 Kilometers” Shakes the Fuel Vehicle Market, but the Trend is Still Multidimensional Coexistence
On March 17, BYD’s stock price rose by 1.15% to 380.25 yuan, bringing its total market value to 1.16 trillion yuan. This marks a significant milestone as it surpasses CATL, becoming the fifth-largest automotive manufacturer in the world by market capitalization. During the press conference that evening, BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu announced the launch of the “Super e-Platform,” which integrates advanced technologies including a high-voltage architecture, fast-charging batteries, megawatt fast-charging systems, and mass-produced 30,000 RPM motors, capturing widespread attention within the industry.
Following the introduction of these technological innovations, some industry experts suggest that BYD is poised to “revolutionize the fate of fuel vehicles.” However, does this imply that fuel vehicles are on the verge of disappearing from history? In reality, while the trend towards electrification is irreversible, fuel vehicles and hydrogen energy, among other technologies, will continue to coexist and develop in the foreseeable future.
BYD Believes Charging Speed Revolution Will End Fuel Vehicle Efficiency Advantage
Perhaps the most significant announcement during BYD’s March 17 press conference was the introduction of the “Megawatt Fast Charging Station.” This technology can achieve “5 minutes of charging for 400 kilometers,” with charging speeds twice as fast as Tesla’s Supercharger. In BYD’s vision, achieving “equal speed for oil and electricity” is the ultimate goal. The company revealed plans to construct over 4,000 “Megawatt Fast Charging Stations” across the country, which will allow vehicles equipped with “megawatt fast charging” to drive 407 kilometers after just 5 minutes of charging. This narrows the efficiency gap from vast to negligible. In comparison, a typical fuel vehicle can fuel up in 5 minutes for about 500 kilometers of range. Wang Chuanfu stated, “When charging time equals refueling time, electric vehicles will have no shortcomings.” Previously, electric vehicle users had to plan for charging stations and set aside an hour for charging; now, they can “charge and go” just like fuel vehicles.
In BYD’s plan, the “Megawatt Fast Charging Station,” combined with energy storage systems, will occupy only 1.5 square meters, with construction costs 40% lower than traditional supercharging stations, and a charging power of 1360 kW (equivalent to operating 1360 household air conditioners simultaneously). The charging cable is designed to be easily manageable with one hand, dispelling the stereotype of “supercharging stations being bulky and difficult to use.” In addition to building its own megawatt fast charging stations, BYD has also created a unique “dual-gun charging” technology that converts supercharging stations into megawatt charging stations, and fast charging stations into supercharging stations. Their globally pioneering “smart boosting” charging technology is fully compatible with public fast charging stations, enabling rural power grids to achieve fast charging of over 500 kW, addressing the charging difficulties in third and fourth-tier cities.
Wang Chuanfu emphasized that BYD’s pursuit is to make the charging time for electric vehicles as short as that for fuel vehicles, achieving “equal speed for oil and electricity.” Reports indicate that Shenzhen ride-hailing driver Li Ming found that he could meet his daily operational needs with just 10 minutes of charging during his lunch break, stating, “Previously, I would rest for an hour during shift changes; now charging is faster than resting.”
Technological Disparities Prompting Industry Restructuring?
In BYD’s vision, each step aims to directly address the core barriers previously held by fuel vehicles. Specifically, BYD has pushed for “equal pricing for oil and electricity” last year and is now focusing on “equal speed for oil and electricity.” According to publicly available information, BYD believes that in the past decade, despite electric vehicles holding advantages in intelligence and usage costs, fuel vehicles’ efficiency in energy replenishment has been the last argument convincing consumers to stick with them. Now, the declaration of “equal speed for oil and electricity” forces fuel vehicle brands to confront the comprehensive advantages of electric vehicles in terms of environmental policies, usage costs, and intelligent experiences. The one megawatt supercharging technology, which aligns charging time with refueling time, compels global automakers to follow suit, or risk being eliminated. The 30,000 RPM motor combined with silicon carbide chips brings supercar performance to vehicles priced at around 200,000 yuan, pressuring traditional automakers to either adapt or exit the market.
For fuel vehicles, this technological revolution is no longer a question of “if they will adapt,” but rather “if they can keep up.” When charging becomes faster than refueling, performance surpasses that of fuel vehicles, and prices are lower than competitors, the end of the fuel vehicle era could arrive sooner than expected. What is even more concerning for the industry is that, given BYD’s approach, it may soon deploy the “megawatt fast charging” technology across its entire lineup, leading to a comprehensive rollout of charging networks, thus signaling a real crisis for fuel vehicles.
From a development perspective, BYD’s ascent is accelerating the decline of fuel vehicles: cities like Beijing are tightening restrictions on fuel vehicles, leading to a drop of over 30% in the value of used fuel vehicles and repair costs being three times higher than those of new energy vehicles. Even traditional automakers like Volkswagen and Honda are attempting to extend their lifespan with hybrid technologies, but consumers are voting with their feet—by 2024, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to approach 50%, with smart vehicles priced over 200,000 yuan accounting for over 85%, relegating fuel vehicles to the status of “functional machines.” A consensus has emerged within the industry: electrification is irreversible. As Wang Chuanfu remarked, “When charging is faster and cheaper than refueling, fuel vehicles will only retain nostalgic value in museums.”
If this development scenario progresses smoothly, it will undoubtedly paint a beautiful picture. Traditional fuel technologies are advancing rapidly, and low carbon is no longer exclusive to electric vehicles. However, the automotive industry is not solely BYD’s domain; it encompasses a vast expanse that includes fuel vehicles, electric vehicles, and hydrogen energy vehicles.
In November 2024, at the annual meeting of the China Society of Automotive Engineers held in Chongqing, Guo Shougong, Deputy Director of the Equipment Industry Division of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stated that while vigorously developing new energy vehicles, traditional internal combustion engine technology should also be advanced to stimulate the development potential of traditional energy vehicles and internal combustion engine manufacturers. Guo emphasized that the development of traditional fuel vehicles and internal combustion engine technologies should not be overlooked, and efforts should be made to invigorate the traditional energy vehicle and internal combustion engine industries to achieve high-level transformation and upgrading.
Despite the rapid improvement in charging efficiency for electric vehicles, fuel vehicles still possess significant advantages in terms of range, refueling convenience, and infrastructure prevalence. Particularly in remote areas or regions lacking charging facilities, fuel vehicles remain the preferred choice for users. Moreover, the technological maturity and market share of fuel vehicles make it unlikely for them to be completely phased out in the short term. Even amidst the rapid rise in electric vehicle penetration, fuel vehicles will continue to hold significant positions in specific scenarios and markets.
Among the many advantages of electric vehicles, green and low-carbon attributes are vital. Industry information indicates that traditional fuel vehicles are also making rapid advancements in internal combustion engine technology pertaining to green and low-carbon goals. According to a report by the China Industrial News, at the 2024 China Internal Combustion Engine Technology Innovation Conference, Chinese Academy of Engineering academician Su Wanhua stated that internal combustion engines are making significant strides toward fuel efficiency, carbon reduction, cleanliness, and zero carbon emissions. Dynamic intelligent combustion control technology is undoubtedly a core element of this transformation. Experimental data strongly supports this technology’s effectiveness in enhancing fuel efficiency and reducing emissions, providing solid technical support for upgrading internal combustion engine technology. Chinese Academy of Engineering academician He Hong also indicated that before 2030, the focus will be on developing independent exhaust purification after-treatment systems, prioritizing pollution reduction while simultaneously reducing carbon emissions. He believes that China’s internal combustion engine industry will transition towards low-carbon and zero-carbon operations in an orderly manner, gradually minimizing the environmental impact of the transportation sector.
Globally, new technologies in internal combustion engines are continuously advancing, and enthusiasm for exploring new combustion modes remains high. Technologies such as Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) and Premixed Charge Compression Ignition (PCCI) break through the limitations of traditional combustion methods, allowing for nearly perfect uniform mixing and full reactions of fuel and air within the combustion chamber. This ideal combustion state results in significantly improved combustion efficiency, drastically reducing fuel consumption and harmful gas emissions, thus outlining a new path for the green and efficient development of internal combustion engines.
In the face of the strong rise of electric vehicles, traditional fuel vehicles are not without countermeasures. Traditional automakers are extending the lifecycle of fuel vehicles through hybrid technologies, lightweight designs, and improved fuel efficiency. For instance, many traditional fuel vehicle manufacturers have launched plug-in hybrid models that maintain fuel vehicles’ range advantages while lowering emissions, catering to some consumers’ needs. Additionally, fuel vehicles still hold unique appeal in high-end markets, performance vehicles, and specific cultural contexts. For example, car enthusiasts’ desire for the roar of internal combustion engines, along with certain regions’ cultural affinity for fuel vehicles, ensures their competitiveness in specific markets.
The Potential of Hydrogen Energy and Other New Energy Sources Should Not Be Overlooked
In terms of green and low-carbon metrics, hydrogen energy currently stands out as the only renewable energy source that achieves “zero emissions.” The core principle of hydrogen energy involves generating electricity through the electrochemical reaction between hydrogen and oxygen, producing water vapor as the only emission with almost no pollution. From an environmental perspective, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles exhibit significant advantages. Additionally, the hydrogen refueling process has been shortened to just 3 to 5 minutes. Reports indicate that in October 2024, Qingdao City witnessed the official operation of its first commercial hydrogen refueling station—Haihe Road Hydrogen Station. Since its opening, the station has demonstrated outstanding efficiency in hydrogen refueling operations, initially alleviating the common “hydrogen anxiety” faced by hydrogen energy vehicles. It has been reported that the entire process from vehicle entry to completed refueling averages only 9 minutes. Sixteen kilograms of hydrogen can support a bus for approximately 300 kilometers, ensuring high efficiency in the everyday operation of hydrogen-powered buses. Moreover, this hydrogen station can complete refueling tasks for three buses every 40 minutes, significantly enhancing the station’s operational efficiency.
In addition to the convenience of hydrogen refueling, hydrogen’s high energy density is another major advantage for hydrogen vehicles. Hydrogen boasts an energy density of 140 MJ/kg, which is three times that of oil and 4.5 times that of coal, far exceeding the chemical energy storage levels of lithium-ion batteries. This means that hydrogen can release more energy at the same weight. This characteristic enables hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to outperform electric vehicles in long-distance driving and heavy-duty transportation. For instance, in the case of hydrogen-powered heavy trucks, experts point out that under typical conditions, their operating costs are comparable to traditional fuel vehicles. However, in specific applications, such as at ports or in short-distance circular routes, they can even save 15% to 20% in operating costs compared to fuel vehicles.
Besides electric vehicles and fuel vehicles, hydrogen energy and other new energy technologies are also developing rapidly. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, with their zero emissions, long range, and quick refueling capabilities, are regarded as a crucial supplement in the future transportation sector. Especially in scenarios involving heavy trucks and long-distance transportation, the potential of hydrogen energy vehicles should not be underestimated. Currently, several automakers are investing significant resources in hydrogen energy and have made notable progress. China is also actively promoting the development of the hydrogen industry, with multiple regions beginning to build hydrogen refueling stations and drive the commercialization of hydrogen energy vehicles. In 2024, hydrogen energy was included in the government work report as a pioneering emerging industry for the first time. The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments previously issued the “Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Long-Term Planning (2021-2035)”, which emphasizes the need to advance the application of hydrogen fuel cells in heavy-duty vehicles and to systematically expand the market space for hydrogen fuel cells in passenger and cargo vehicles.
Thus, even though BYD’s “Super e-Platform” and “Megawatt Fast Charging” technology showcase significant advancements in the electric vehicle domain, this does not mean that fuel vehicles and other new energy technologies will swiftly exit the stage. The future landscape of transportation energy is likely to be diversified, with electric vehicles, fuel vehicles, hydrogen energy vehicles, and others all meeting varying user needs based on their respective technological characteristics and application scenarios.
