Trends in the BC Battery Industry: Competitive Landscape Optimizes in Components, Silicon Materials, etc.
On March 18, 2025, Ping An Securities released a weekly report on the power equipment and new energy industry, highlighting that large onshore wind turbines of 10MW and above are entering mass commercial operation, and competition among photovoltaic technology routes is intensifying. Below is a summary of the research report:
This week (March 10-14, 2025), a review of the sub-sectors in new energy shows that the wind power index (866044.WI) increased by 1.93%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.34 percentage points. As of this week, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the wind power sector stood at approximately 20.28 times. The Shenwan photovoltaic equipment index (801735.SI) rose by 1.15% this week, with the Shenwan photovoltaic cell component index increasing by 2.07%. The Shenwan photovoltaic processing equipment index fell by 0.62%, while the Shenwan photovoltaic auxiliary materials index increased by 1.28%. The current PE ratio for the photovoltaic sector is about 34.73 times. The energy storage index (884790.WI) experienced a rise of 3.11%, with the overall PE ratio for the energy storage sector at 29.1 times. The hydrogen energy index (8841063.WI) increased by 1.75%, with the overall PE ratio for the hydrogen energy sector at 32.21 times.
Key Topics of the Week: Wind Power
Mass commercial operation of onshore wind turbines of 10MW and above is underway. On March 9, the first 11MW wind turbine tower for the China Electric Power Construction Group’s 1 million kW wind power project in Tuoketuo County was successfully hoisted. The project plans to install 23 wind turbines, each with a capacity of 11MW, indicating that these turbines will soon be installed and operational. Recently, several onshore wind power projects using turbines with a capacity of over 10MW have emerged in China. The China Shipbuilding Group’s 500,000 kW wind power hydrogen and ammonia integration demonstration project in Tongliao City was approved, with a planned capacity of 500MW and the installation of 40 turbines of 12.5MW each. Additionally, the procurement candidate for the wind turbine and its auxiliary equipment for the Shibeishan wind power project in Huizhou has been announced, with Sany Heavy Energy expected to win the bid, planning to use turbines with a capacity of 13.6MW. This indicates that the trend towards larger onshore wind turbines in China is continuing.
Simultaneously, leading wind turbine companies are launching products with capacities exceeding 10MW. We believe that while the ongoing trend towards larger onshore wind turbines may not significantly alter the current low-price, homogeneous competition landscape, it will strengthen the competitive advantage of domestic wind turbine products against foreign counterparts. Based on the current competitive landscape, without strong policy support, the competitive situation for domestic onshore wind turbines is unlikely to change fundamentally for a considerable time.
Photovoltaics: Intense Competition Among Technology Routes
Data from the Zhangbei demonstration project led by the State Grid Jibei Wind-Solar Storage Transmission Company has been released, showing that from December 2024 to February 2025, the average power generation per watt of Trina Solar’s Supreme N-type TOPCon modules surpassed that of BC modules by 4.18%. Recent information disclosed by Longi Green Energy indicates that in a photovoltaic module performance comparison experiment conducted over eight months on the rooftop of a commercial building in Xi’an, Shaanxi, the Hi-MO9 module using second-generation BC technology significantly outperformed the TOPCon module in terms of both power generation efficiency and total power generation, with a cumulative output 7.74% higher than that of the TOPCon module. These two validation results highlight significant debates regarding the power generation performance comparison among products from different technology routes, such as BC and TOPCon.
Furthermore, in terms of conversion efficiency, since Longi launched mass-produced modules with a conversion efficiency of 24.8% based on second-generation BC technology in 2024, leading companies such as JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, JA Solar, and Tongwei Co. have also introduced TOPCon technology-based modules achieving the same efficiency. This indicates that competition in conversion efficiency among different technology routes remains intense. Due to the ongoing debates regarding power generation performance and the competitive catch-up in conversion efficiency, the pace of promoting BC technology may be hindered, and the conflict among photovoltaic battery technology routes awaits clearer conclusions.
Energy Storage & Hydrogen Energy: Two-Year Exemption from Demand Charge for User-side Energy Storage in Sichuan
The Sichuan Provincial Development and Reform Commission has officially issued a notice to improve the pricing mechanism for new energy storage, announcing that user-side new energy storage projects that commence operation before December 31, 2026, will be exempt from demand charges for two years. Demand charges are fixed fees that users pay based on transformer capacity or maximum demand, making up 15%-30% of commercial users’ electricity costs. The exemption from demand charges in Sichuan will significantly reduce costs for user-side energy storage, enhancing the expected returns for users. This policy represents a substantial alleviation of energy storage costs and is expected to lower the operational threshold for user-side energy storage, subsequently driving growth in the installed capacity of energy storage in Sichuan within the year.
Industry insiders are concerned about the potential impact of the exit from “strong matching” policies on energy storage installations. However, it is also evident that various regions are actively exploring policies to encourage competitive matching for energy storage, promote market-oriented operations, and support user-side energy storage. We believe that energy storage will continue to play an essential role in enhancing the flexibility and stability of the new power system and its collaboration with renewable energy plants. The ongoing exploration by regions to diversify energy storage application scenarios and market participation is expected to provide substantial support for both the quality and quantity of energy storage installations.
Investment Recommendations
In the wind power sector, the outlook for domestic offshore wind power is positive, with favorable export conditions. The commercialization process for floating wind turbines is expected to accelerate. Key companies to watch include Mingyang Smart Energy, Dongfang Cable, and Yaxing Anchor Chain. The demand for onshore wind power is likely to exceed expectations, and the prices for complete units are stabilizing and recovering, making Jin Feng Technology and Yun Da Shares noteworthy.
In the photovoltaic sector, the trends in the BC battery industry are becoming apparent, with a focus on companies like Dier Laser, Longi Green Energy, and Aiko Solar. Attention should also be given to policy guidance and industry self-regulation that may lead to optimized competition in components and silicon materials, with companies like Tongwei Co. being notable.
In the energy storage sector, the competitive landscape and profitability in overseas large-scale storage markets are promising, with strong growth in demand. Key players to monitor include Sungrow Power Supply and Shangen Electric. The residential storage market is blossoming, and attention should be paid to companies like Deyue Shares that have solid layouts in emerging markets.
In the hydrogen energy sector, companies actively positioning themselves in the electrolyzer market, such as Huaguang Huaneng, which is on the shortlist for the China Energy Construction Corporation, and leading participants in the fuel cell systems segment like Yihua Tong, should be closely watched.
Risk Warnings
- Risk of electricity demand growth being lower than expected: Wind power and photovoltaics are significantly influenced by macroeconomic conditions and electricity demand, and lower-than-expected demand growth could affect the pace of new energy development.
- Risk of intensified competition in certain sectors: In the context of dual-carbon policies, more companies are entering the wind and photovoltaic manufacturing sectors, potentially intensifying competition in some areas.
- Risk of increasing trade protectionism: Domestic photovoltaic manufacturing and wind power components are highly competitive globally, with some sectors having high export ratios. An increase in global trade protectionism could adversely affect related export companies.
- Risk of technological progress and cost reduction not meeting expectations: Offshore wind power is still in a transitional period to parity; if cost reduction does not proceed as expected, it could negatively impact the development outlook for offshore wind power. The advancement of various new photovoltaic batteries also depends on subsequent technological progress and cost reduction, which may not meet expectations.
Disclaimer: The content and data presented in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Please verify before use. Any actions taken based on this information are at your own risk.
