This year has seen an explosive surge in the demand for photovoltaic components, with prices rising by more than 30%. According to industry statistics, the spot price for mainstream distributed components reached 0.8 yuan/W in March, a staggering increase of over 33% compared to the price low of 0.6 yuan/W at the end of 2024. A distributor from Changzhou, Jiangsu, named Li Yang (pseudonym), told reporters, “Currently, the price changes daily. Who knows, tomorrow the boss might see favorable market conditions and raise the price again. We can’t do anything about it.”
After speaking with several distributors, it is clear that the photovoltaic industry is currently in a state of “immediate production and dispatch”. Once products are loaded onto trucks, customers must pay the full amount immediately. Contracts that were signed at lower prices are not being renegotiated for higher prices; however, manufacturers are unable to deliver on time and can only push back delivery dates.
An employee from a leading component manufacturer, Zhang Yi (pseudonym), stated, “It’s a seller’s market. Everyone wants it, and whoever offers the highest price gets it.”
“Goods are picked up as soon as they arrive.” Recently, the price surge has been particularly strong for distributed photovoltaic components, which have seen a significant volume of deliveries. In contrast, the prices for centralized project components have remained stable, generally falling between 0.635 and 0.69 yuan/W. Wang Ying (pseudonym) from Changmai New Energy indicated that “the prices have stabilized recently, but they might differ significantly between morning and afternoon.”
According to data from InfoLink, the peak prices for distributed components have reached 0.8 yuan/W. Notably, the execution price for TOPCon components ranges from 0.68 to 0.8 yuan/W, with an average of 0.73 yuan/W. HJT components are priced between 0.76 and 0.85 yuan/W, while the price for N-TBC components is currently around 0.73 to 0.82 yuan/W.
Fang Wenzheng noted, “Since the beginning of the year, the price of photovoltaic components has risen, with an increase of about 15% since January 23. Notably, the profitability of components started improving in February. In March, the operating rates of battery cells and components significantly increased, largely driven by the top integrated component manufacturers.”
A distributor from Chongqing, Yang Gang (pseudonym), revealed that “the 715W Trina component is available at 0.755 yuan/W and can be dispatched the next day, while Jinko’s 710W is priced at 0.74 yuan/W but won’t be shipped until mid-April. It should be fine to rush orders, but it’s better to get spot goods.”
This distributor also mentioned that “previously, manufacturers required a full truckload, about 700 pieces, to ship. Now, as soon as there’s stock, they allow immediate pick-up. Manufacturers no longer assist with unpacking and shipping, nor do they allow vehicle exchanges.”
At the Clean Energy Expo, discussions with several leading component companies revealed that they are currently facing high demand and are essentially operating at full capacity.
In fact, 2024 saw a continuous decline in component prices, and the current booming situation is largely influenced by two photovoltaic policies, with everyone rushing to install and connect to the grid before the “430” and “531” deadlines.
The “430 New Policy” refers to the Management Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation, which stipulates that projects connected to the grid before April 30 can opt for a full grid connection model and enjoy higher subsidy rates. Projects connected after this date can only choose partial grid connection or self-consumption models, losing the ability for full grid sales. Additionally, large distributed photovoltaic projects over 6MW will only be allowed self-consumption after April 30, with excess electricity priced at market rates.
The “531 New Policy” is titled Notice on Deepening the Market-Oriented Reform of New Energy Grid Connection Pricing to Promote High-Quality Development of New Energy, stating that after May 31, all newly commissioned distributed photovoltaic projects will generally have their electricity sold in the market, with prices determined through bidding, eliminating national subsidies.
Following the issuance of these policies, project developers are compelled to expedite installation to secure higher subsidy returns. Moreover, they must complete grid connection before May 31 to avoid entering the market-based bidding system.
As the prices of photovoltaic components surge, prices for batteries, silicon wafers, and photovoltaic glass across the supply chain are also seeing persistent increases.
With the upcoming “430” and “531” deadlines, data from the Silicon Industry Association on March 20 indicates a strong willingness among leading companies to raise prices, particularly for G12R products. The average transaction price for N-type G12R monocrystalline silicon (182*210mm/130μm) reached 1.40 yuan/piece, a week-on-week increase of 1.45%, indicating that companies are moving out of loss-making status. Earlier this year, the average transaction price for this type of silicon was 1.2 yuan/piece.
Battery prices continue to rise as G12R battery cells remain in short supply, with manufacturers quoting prices of 0.32 to 0.35 yuan/W, significantly higher than earlier prices of 0.25 to 0.27 yuan/W.
The photovoltaic glass market has also improved significantly, with prices rising sharply. The average price for 2.0mm photovoltaic glass is 13.75 yuan/square meter, an increase of 1.25 yuan/square meter from February; for 3.2mm photovoltaic glass, the average price is 22.75 yuan/square meter, up by 2.25 yuan/square meter from February.
According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (SMM), as of March 18, the average market price for photovoltaic-grade EVA reached 11652.98 yuan/ton, an increase of 248.57 yuan/ton since the beginning of the month, with a weekly increase of 1.36%, hitting a new high for the month.
“The demand brought by the rush for installation is merely a timing adjustment; the overall annual volume hasn’t significantly increased,” said Lü Jinbiao, co-secretary of SEMI China’s Photovoltaic Standards Committee.
Regarding the price trends for photovoltaic components after the installation rush ends, most expect a decline. Distributor Wang Ying remarked, “Prices will definitely drop.”
According to staff from Yidao New Energy, the time from ordering to delivery is about 20 days, after which prices are expected to decrease. The previous deadlines of late June and late December have now effectively been advanced.
An employee from a leading component manufacturer estimated that this wave of price increases will likely only last until early April, after which prices will drop. Supply is no longer as tight as it was a week or two ago.
Recently, Longi Green Energy’s founder and CEO, Li Zhengguo, stated that the recent rebound in industry chain prices is a simple correction in response to supply-demand imbalances. Coupled with policy changes, there may be some rush for installations in the next two to three months. However, the actual impact of this rush on the industry is quite limited. A more significant shift may occur only after less competitive companies exit the market during this round of adjustments.
“While there has been a short-term price rebound, I am not overly optimistic about the overall health of the industry,” Li Zhengguo remarked.
Fang Wenzheng added that the industry generally anticipates that post-June, with the tapering off of the rush for installations and the implementation of market-oriented pricing reforms for new energy grid connections, the prices of photovoltaic components may decline, especially for centralized projects. However, he believes that prices for distributed projects may remain at relatively high levels.
