Global Energy Price Trend Analysis Report (March 2025)
Key Highlights
International Crude Oil Market: In March, the international crude oil market experienced narrow fluctuations, influenced by several factors: the announcement by OPEC+ to resume production increases from April, concerns over economic recession and energy demand triggered by U.S. tariff policies, the potential for renewed sanctions against Iran, and the escalating geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which heightened supply risk. By March 27, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil futures prices settled at $69.92 per barrel and $74.03 per barrel, reflecting month-on-month changes of -0.61% and -0.01%, respectively.
International Natural Gas Market: With warmer weather in March, heating demand decreased, and combined with ample LNG supply in the market, global natural gas prices remained elevated yet volatile. As of March 27, the U.S. Henry Hub natural gas main contract closed at $3.92 per million British thermal units, a month-on-month decline of 0.51%. The TTF natural gas futures main contract was priced at €41.202 per megawatt-hour, down 8.30% from the previous month. The Platts Japan Korea Marker (JKM) futures price stood at $13.175 per million British thermal units, decreasing by 5.79% month-on-month.
International Coal Market: In March, as temperatures warmed in most regions, coal demand weakened. With good performance from renewable energy generation and sufficient coal stocks at power plants, global coal prices continued to decline. By March 27, coal futures prices at Newcastle, Australia, were at $96.75 per ton, down 5.52% month-on-month. South Africa’s Richards Bay coal futures were priced at $87.1 per ton, a decrease of 8.07%, while European coal futures were at $97.85 per ton, down 1.9% month-on-month.
Crude Oil Market
Narrow Fluctuations in Global Crude Oil Prices
In March, the international crude oil market demonstrated narrow fluctuations, initially declining before rising again. On March 3, OPEC announced that eight member and non-member oil-producing countries (including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman) decided to gradually increase oil production from April 1, reversing voluntary production cuts announced in 2023. The initial increase is set at 138,000 barrels per day, with plans to eliminate a total of 2 million barrels per day of production cuts by September 2026. The statement emphasized that the pace of increases would be adjusted flexibly according to market conditions.
Since November 2022, OPEC+ has phased down oil production by 5.85 million barrels per day, approximately 5.7% of global oil supply, to address weak demand and oversupply from rising output by competitors. While the planned increase of 138,000 barrels per day may have limited short-term impact on the oil supply-demand structure, it sends a signal that could lead to increased support for the fossil fuel industry from the U.S. government. If the U.S. adopts more lenient policies towards fossil fuels, global oil supply may significantly rise.
On March 5, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an unexpected increase of 3.6 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories, significantly surpassing analysts’ predictions and indicating a sharper slowdown in oil demand than expected. The combined effects of OPEC+ production increases, higher-than-expected U.S. crude oil inventories, and economic impacts from tariff increases led Brent crude prices to dip to $68.57 per barrel, the lowest since December 2021.
On March 6, President Trump signed an executive order adjusting tariffs on Canada and Mexico, temporarily exempting eligible goods under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) from tariffs until April 2. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, along with plans to replenish the strategic petroleum reserve, caused fluctuations in international oil prices, but Brent crude futures managed to rebound above $70 per barrel. Nonetheless, concerns about demand remained, primarily due to potential retaliatory measures from the affected countries.
On March 9, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick confirmed that Trump’s promised 25% tariffs on all U.S. imports of steel and aluminum would take effect as planned on March 12, halting the two-day rise in international oil prices. By March 10, WTI settled at $66.03 per barrel, while Brent futures were at $69.28 per barrel, the lowest since September 2024.
On March 13, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a monthly report indicating that global oil demand growth for 2025 would fall short of expectations amid escalating trade tensions and increased macroeconomic uncertainty. The IEA revised its prediction for global oil demand growth in 2025 to 1.03 million barrels per day, a reduction of 70,000 barrels per day from last month’s forecast. Notably, the IEA adjusted its forecasts for each quarter in 2025 downwards, forecasting reductions of 160,000 barrels per day in Q1, and 70,000 and 80,000 barrels per day in Q2 and Q3, respectively. Furthermore, the IEA noted that with OPEC+ increasing production, global oil supply could surpass demand by approximately 600,000 barrels per day this year.
As March progressed, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East became a significant driver for rising oil prices. On March 15, the U.S. launched a large-scale airstrike against the Houthi rebels in Yemen, with Trump declaring an intent to use “overwhelming lethal force” against the Houthis, warning Iran to cease its support for them immediately. This escalation increased the risk of supply disruptions in the region, leading to slight increases in international oil prices.
On March 20, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) initiated its fourth round of sanctions against Iran’s oil network since Trump took office, targeting a Chinese “teapot” refinery, several shipping companies involved in Iranian oil trade, and numerous oil tankers. This news significantly drove up crude oil prices, pushing Brent crude futures above $72 per barrel.
On March 22, the Houthis claimed successful attacks on multiple escort ships at Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport and the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Harry Truman. Iranian state media reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps revealed new missile facilities deployed on three islands in the Persian Gulf, claiming their potential targets included “enemy bases, ships, and assets” in the region. The escalating geopolitical situation increased the risk of oil supply disruptions from the Middle East, compounded by the U.S. announcing a 25% tariff on oil and gas purchased from Venezuela, further heightening concerns regarding global oil supply. Consequently, Brent crude futures surged above $73 per barrel.
As of March 27, WTI and Brent crude futures prices settled at $69.92 per barrel and $74.03 per barrel, reflecting month-on-month changes of -0.61% and -0.01%, respectively, down 14.05% and 14.01% compared to the same period in 2024, when prices were $81.35 per barrel and $86.09 per barrel.
Domestic Oil Production Stable; Imports Down 5% Year-on-Year
From January to February 2025, large-scale industrial crude oil output reached 35.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, with an average daily output of 594,000 tons. China’s crude oil imports during the same period totaled 83.85 million tons, down 5% from 88.30 million tons in the previous year.
Natural Gas Market
Global Natural Gas Prices Experience Fluctuations
In March, U.S. natural gas prices initially rose before declining. During the first half of March, warmer temperatures across much of the U.S. led to a significant reduction in residential and commercial gas consumption, coupled with a slight drop in gas usage for electricity generation. As a result, total natural gas consumption in the U.S. plummeted. Meanwhile, natural gas production across the contiguous 48 states remained stable at over 10.50 to 10.60 billion cubic feet per day, showing a slight increase compared to the previous year. Despite rising production and weakening domestic demand, strong LNG exports propelled U.S. natural gas prices upward. With the commissioning of new facilities at Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana, the amount of natural gas flowing to U.S. LNG export facilities stabilized at 16 billion cubic feet per day. Additionally, a 10% tariff on imported natural gas from Canada is expected to lower imports from that country.
On March 5, Henry Hub natural gas futures reached $4.472 per million British thermal units, marking the highest level since 2024. However, by late March, despite expectations for growth in U.S. LNG exports due to potential approvals for the Venture Global CP2 project, continued warm weather and declining natural gas demand led to a steep drop in prices, with Henry Hub settling at $3.862 per million British thermal units on March 26, down 15.79% from the month’s early high.
As of March 27, the Henry Hub natural gas main contract was priced at $3.92 per million British thermal units, a 0.51% decrease from the previous month but a 127.91% increase compared to $1.72 per million British thermal units in the same period of 2024.
European Natural Gas Prices Show Volatility
In March, European natural gas prices remained elevated amid fluctuations. Early in the month, as temperatures rose, consumption in Northwestern Europe decreased. Although recent inventory depletion rates increased, with gas storage levels at 35.88% of total capacity (down 40.67% year-on-year), rising LNG imports from Europe dampened market sentiment. Moreover, although recent U.S.-Ukraine negotiations ended without agreement, potential easing of U.S. sanctions on Russia and expectations of an energy cooperation agreement could increase Russian gas supplies to Europe, further negatively impacting the market. As a result, European natural gas prices continued to decline, dipping below €40 per megawatt-hour. On March 6, TTF natural gas futures prices hit €38.24 per megawatt-hour, the lowest in four months.
On March 7, multiple regions in Ukraine experienced large-scale missile and drone attacks from Russia, disrupting gas supply to critical infrastructure. Additionally, maintenance work on some North Sea gas fields and reduced gas flow through Norway’s pipeline system heightened concerns about supply drops. Coupled with lower gas inventories, these factors contributed to TTF prices rising above €42 per megawatt-hour, which stabilized between €40 and €44 per megawatt-hour. By the end of March, rising LNG imports into Europe, along with the impending off-peak gas consumption season, shifted the market dynamics again, leading TTF natural gas futures to experience weak fluctuations. As of March 27, TTF natural gas futures main contract was priced at €41.202 per megawatt-hour, an 8.30% decrease month-on-month but a 48.81% increase compared to €27.687 per megawatt-hour in the same period of 2024.
Northeast Asia Natural Gas Prices Fluctuate
In March, Northeast Asia’s natural gas prices experienced narrow fluctuations. In the first half of March, warmer weather led to weak heating demand, and with ample LNG supplies and high inventories in major consuming countries, China’s LNG exit prices dropped. The persistent price inversion continued, following the downward trend of Western European natural gas prices. On March 18, Platts Japan Korea Marker (JKM) futures prices reached $13.105 per million British thermal units, the lowest since late December 2024. By late March, some replenishment demand emerged, and failed negotiations between the U.S. and Russia regarding a comprehensive ceasefire in Ukraine intensified supply security concerns. Although JKM futures prices rose, the overall price increase lacked support from adequate supply, leading JKM futures to settle at $13.175 per million British thermal units as of March 27, down 5.79% month-on-month but up 40.16% compared to $9.40 per million British thermal units in the same period of 2024.
Domestic Natural Gas Production Steady; Imports Down 7.7%
From January to February 2025, large-scale industrial natural gas production reached 43.3 billion cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with an average daily output of 730 million cubic meters. Natural gas imports totaled 20.31 million tons, down 7.7% year-on-year. According to the National Development and Reform Commission, total apparent natural gas consumption in the country during this period reached 69.94 billion cubic meters, marking a 3.4% decrease compared to the previous year.
Coal Market
Global Coal Prices Continue Downward Trend
In early March, warmer temperatures across much of the Asia-Pacific region, approaching the end of the heating season, led to weakened coal demand. Renewables performed well, and inventory levels in major coal-consuming countries such as China and India were high, resulting in continued declines in Australian coal futures prices, dropping below $102 per ton. On March 6, Cyclone “Alfred” impacted the east coast of Australia, causing some ports to halt loading operations, tightening supply in the shipping market and providing slight support for Australian coal prices. On March 11, Newcastle coal futures prices were at $104.9 per ton. However, declining demand from China, Japan, and South Korea, alongside Southeast Asian countries shifting to other suppliers, rapidly pushed Australian coal prices below $100 per ton. By March 25, Newcastle coal futures were priced at $96.4 per ton, the lowest since June 2021.
South Africa’s Richards Bay coal futures also continued their downward trend in March. In response to soaring electricity demand, the Indian government has been working to reduce dependence on imported coal and significantly increase domestic production. This has led to persistent low demand for South African coal, with significant inventory accumulation at key export ports. Additionally, low railway capacity since the second half of 2024 has put downward pressure on Richards Bay coal futures, which fell below $88 per ton. In contrast, European coal prices remained relatively stable. Although European thermal coal prices continued to decline amidst falling natural gas prices and strong renewable energy output, the geopolitical tensions surrounding Ukraine, which hindered U.S.-Russia negotiations, supported coal prices, preventing further declines. However, as demand remained low and inventories increased in the three major European ports, market sentiment failed to counterbalance the pressure from weak demand, leading European coal futures to fluctuate around $97 per ton.
By March 27, Newcastle coal futures prices were at $96.75 per ton, down 5.52% month-on-month, and down 25% from $129 per ton in the same period of 2024. South Africa’s Richards Bay coal futures were priced at $87.1 per ton, a decrease of 8.07% month-on-month and down 11.66% from $98.6 per ton in 2024. European coal futures stood at $97.85 per ton, down 1.9% month-on-month and down 14.20% from $114.05 per ton in the same period of 2024.
According to the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia, coal production in January 2025 reached 37.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, but a month-on-month decrease of 8.0%. In the Kuzbass region, Russia’s most important coal-producing area, mining operations produced 17 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.3% compared to January 2024. Due to Western sanctions against Russia’s coal industry and challenges in finding alternative buyers in Asia, the Russian coal industry faces a severe crisis, with half of the coal mining companies reporting losses. In 2024, India’s imports of Russian coal dropped by 37%, while China’s imports of Russian coal decreased by 13%. The ongoing sanctions, trends of halted coal production in Russia, rising railway costs, and logistics restrictions continue to negatively impact both Russian coal production and global market supply.
According to the EIA, U.S. coal production in January 2025 was 44.104 million short tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.1% and a month-on-month rise of 2.1%. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that total coal exports in January 2025 were 7 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 16.9%, marking a nine-month low. Among these, thermal coal exports were 3.6 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.8%, but down 11.3% compared to the previous year. Metallurgical coal exports totaled 3.4 million tons, experiencing a significant month-on-month decrease of 32.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%.
On March 17, President Trump stated on social media that the coal industry had been “controlled by extreme environmentalists, crazies, radicals, and thugs” for years, allowing other countries to gain economic advantages by opening more coal-fired power plants. While the policy behind this statement has yet to be realized, coal is undoubtedly viewed by Trump as part of his plan to “unleash American energy.” However, any large-scale revival of coal power faces challenges from oil and gas facilities and cost competition. Currently, the U.S. is the largest producer of oil and gas globally and the largest LNG exporter in 2024. The declining coal industry in the U.S. struggles to compete; EIA data shows coal-fired power now constitutes only 15% of U.S. electricity generation, a significant drop from over 50% in 2000. Furthermore, coal power may face further pressure from the growth of renewable energy generation. Despite Trump’s efforts to overturn Biden’s green policies and his criticism of renewable energy, the market expects continued growth in U.S. renewable energy generation.
According to the Ministry of Coal of India, total coal production (including lignite) in January 2025 reached 108.15 million tons, an increase of 3.8% year-on-year and 6.7% month-on-month. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry reported that India’s cumulative coal imports in 2024 totaled 248 million tons, showing a sharp decline after 11 months of growth, down 1.7% year-on-year. The last half of 2024 saw a significant drop in coal imports, with December imports at 15.29 million tons, down 32.2% year-on-year and 18.4% month-on-month. According to South African customs statistics, coal exports in January 2025 were 6.4026 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.4% but a month-on-month decrease of 4.7%. In January 2025, Indonesian coal exports reached 41.2386 million tons, a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year but a significant decrease of 18.5% month-on-month. Additionally, reports from BigMint indicate that non-coking coal exports from Indonesia plummeted from 33.92 million tons in December 2024 to 28.18 million tons, representing a month-on-month drop of 17%.
Domestic Coal Production Accelerates; Imports Up 2.1% Year-on-Year
From January to February 2025, large-scale industrial raw coal production reached 770 million tons, an increase of 7.7% year-on-year, with an average daily output of 12.97 million tons. Coal imports, including lignite, totaled 76.119 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. According to the Baltic International Maritime Council (BIMCO), coal imports via maritime transport in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to decline by 15% year-on-year, reaching a three-year low.
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