In 2025, the world’s first solar module company to achieve over 100 GW in shipments may emerge, with JinkoSolar poised to be the first to reach this milestone.
Canadian Solar’s 2024 financial report revealed a 21.28% year-on-year decline in total revenue, amounting to $5.99 billion (approximately ¥42.59 billion), while net profit attributable to shareholders plummeted by 86.85%.
In contrast, JinkoSolar reported solar product shipments of 99.6 GW in 2024, marking a 19.2% year-on-year increase. Of this, module shipments reached 92.9 GW, an increase of over 18% compared to the previous year.
Furthermore, JinkoSolar anticipates its module shipments will fall between 85 GW and 100 GW this year, making it the world’s first module manufacturer to exceed a total delivery of 300 GW.
Despite facing market uncertainties, JinkoSolar’s production capacity in Southeast Asia, specifically in Vietnam and Malaysia, may be affected. The company is actively exploring new markets.
Among major photovoltaic manufacturers, JinkoSolar and Canadian Solar, which are listed on both the A-share and US stock markets, were among the first to disclose their 2024 financial results. Both companies are notable for remaining profitable among the leading firms in the solar industry. Canadian Solar, listed on NASDAQ, reported a revenue decline of 21.28%, totaling $5.99 billion (approximately ¥42.59 billion), with over 90% of this revenue attributed to Canadian Solar. The net profit attributable to shareholders was $36.05 million (approximately ¥256 million), reflecting a staggering 86.85% drop.
JinkoSolar, listed on the New York Stock Exchange, reported an annual revenue of $12.64 billion (approximately ¥92.26 billion), with over 99% of this revenue generated by JinkoSolar itself. This represented a 22.26% decrease compared to the previous year, with a net profit of $7.9 million (approximately ¥57.66 million), down 98%. However, this figure included non-recurring losses from incidents such as a fire at the Shanxi factory, leading to an adjusted net profit of $78.3 million (approximately ¥572 million).
It is essential to note that while most of these companies’ earnings stem from their A-share operations, the financial data is prepared according to US accounting standards, which may include factors such as foreign exchange conversions, resulting in differences from the final annual reports of the A-share companies. Previously, both companies had released performance forecasts that can serve as a reference. The forecasts indicated that Canadian Solar achieved a revenue of ¥46.16 billion in 2024, a 10.03% year-on-year decline, with a net profit of ¥2.291 billion, down 21.09%. JinkoSolar reported a revenue of ¥92.621 billion, a year-on-year decline of 21.96%, and a net profit of ¥90.541 million, a drop of 98.78%.
Despite their resilience, both companies are still struggling due to a roughly 30% annual decline in the price of solar modules. However, the US financial reports revealed some noteworthy information. Canadian Solar’s module shipments remained flat at 31.1 GW last year, falling out of the top five global module shipments as other companies increased their output. Nonetheless, Canadian Solar’s energy storage business saw significant growth, with shipments of energy storage systems reaching 6.6 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of over 500%. The company plans to ship between 30 GW and 35 GW of modules in 2025, showing limited interest in increasing its shipments, while it aims to reach 11 GWh to 13 GWh in energy storage shipments, potentially doubling its output.
It is anticipated that Canadian Solar will continue to focus on its energy storage business, similar to Sungrow, which currently holds the top market value in the A-share market, aligning its energy storage and solar generation efforts to enhance investment returns in downstream power station projects.
On the other hand, JinkoSolar, despite a decline in revenue and net profit, achieved record high module shipments. In 2024, the company shipped 99.6 GW of solar products, up 19.2% year-on-year, with module shipments reaching 92.9 GW, marking an increase of over 18%, maintaining its position as the top global module supplier. JinkoSolar had previously held the title of global module sales leader for three consecutive years from 2016 to 2019, but this title was claimed by LONGi Green Energy from 2020 to 2022. In 2023, JinkoSolar regained this honor thanks to its advantages in N-type TOPCon modules and market advancements. By 2024, N-type module shipments accounted for 85% of total shipments, and as the market share of related products continues to grow, this proportion is expected to increase further.
According to JinkoSolar’s US financial report, the company anticipates module shipments will range from 85 GW to 100 GW this year. A source close to JinkoSolar indicated that the publicly disclosed forecast is conservative, as the company believes that achieving 100 GW in shipments is a target that needs to be met. Furthermore, within the industry, JinkoSolar is considered the company most likely to achieve this goal by 2025.
By the end of 2024, JinkoSolar is projected to become the first module manufacturer to surpass a total delivery of 300 GW, and by the end of this year, this figure may further exceed 400 GW. From a production capacity perspective, this shipment target appears achievable. The company has invested a total of ¥56 billion in its vertically integrated base project in Shanxi, with an annual capacity of 56 GW, which is currently under construction. Partial production is expected to commence in 2025, and total module capacity will increase to over 130 GW.
Moreover, with the continuous advancement of N-type technology replacement, JinkoSolar is also likely to experience improved market performance. However, examining the first quarter of this year, achieving 100 GW in shipments may not be straightforward. The company disclosed that it expects module shipments to be between 16 GW and 18 GW in the first quarter. Although the first quarter is traditionally a slow season, the domestic market has seen a resurgence of demand due to new policies, suggesting that the first quarter’s performance may be stronger than in previous years. However, this could also potentially deplete demand and dilute shipments for the latter half of the year.
Additionally, JinkoSolar has been performing well in overseas markets, with over 60% of its revenue generated from international markets in 2024. The relatively high market prices in Europe and the US have also supported its profitability. However, the US solar market has become increasingly uncertain since the Trump administration. JinkoSolar’s 2 GW module factory in Florida was fully operational in the first quarter of last year, but only a portion of its capacity received IRA subsidies. With the Trump administration halting clean energy subsidies, loans, and tax credits, the company’s business in the US may face fluctuations. Furthermore, JinkoSolar’s production capacity in Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam and Malaysia, may also be impacted by US anti-dumping investigations and tariff policies, causing uncertainty in production and shipments for 2025. Nevertheless, the company is actively expanding into new markets.
In July 2024, JinkoSolar announced a joint venture with the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) to establish a 10 GW high-efficiency solar cell and module project locally. However, projects in the Middle East typically have longer construction cycles, and JinkoSolar previously projected that the project would commence production between late 2025 and early 2026, meaning shipments from this project are unlikely to materialize this year.
Historically, the 100 GW shipment milestone has primarily been achieved in the silicon wafer segment; for instance, in 2023, both major silicon wafer manufacturers surpassed 100 GW in shipments, with TCL Zhonghuan at 114 GW and LONGi Green Energy at 125.42 GW. However, no module manufacturer has yet reached the 100 GW shipping threshold. Whether JinkoSolar can achieve this target remains to be seen and will depend on its shipping strategies and market developments.
It is noted that JinkoSolar’s 2024 financial report and the first quarter report for 2025 are expected to be released on April 29.
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