Explosion of Range-Extended Vehicles: Has Li Auto Won? Is Pure Electric on the Verge of Extinction? A Comprehensive Prediction for the Future of China’s New Energy Vehicles

Recently, the automotive industry has been buzzing with excitement—new models such as the Beijing Off-road BJ40 range-extended version have been launched, spy shots of the Xpeng X9 range-extended version have surfaced, and even the Wuling Hongguang is getting in on the range-extender trend. Notably, the Volkswagen Tayron L has also released a PHEV version. Many netizens are proclaiming, “Li Auto is the most visionary!” Could it be that the ultimate form of new energy vehicles is not the pure electric vehicle powered by solid-state batteries but rather the range-extended vehicle equipped with a “small fuel tank”? Are pure electric green license plate vehicles on the verge of becoming a thing of the past? Today, we will take a deep dive into the development trends of China’s new energy vehicles and explore how the market landscape will evolve in the coming years.

Why the Sudden Surge of Range-Extended Vehicles?

Since the launch of the Li ONE in 2019, Li Auto has faced its share of controversy. Many in the industry dismissed the range-extender technology as merely a “transitional solution,” even mockingly referring to it as an “electric vehicle with a power bank.” However, the market has responded differently—by 2023, Li Auto’s annual sales surpassed 376,000 vehicles, making it the sales champion among China’s new car-making forces. This commercial success has prompted the industry to reevaluate the viability of range-extender technology.

The core logic behind the rise of range-extended vehicles is straightforward: it effectively addresses two major pain points of current pure electric vehicles—range anxiety and inconvenient charging. Range-extended vehicles maintain the smoothness and low operating costs associated with electric driving while using an internal combustion engine to generate power for long-distance travel. From a consumer psychology perspective, a range-extended vehicle acts like a “range insurance” for electric cars—using electricity for daily use and fuel for emergencies. This “dual insurance” design significantly lowers the barriers for consumers to make a purchase.

Market data supports this trend. According to Zhang Yongwei, Vice Chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum, it is projected that by 2025, the sales of plug-in hybrid (including range-extended) vehicles will exceed 8 million units, accounting for nearly 50% of the new energy market share. This figure far exceeds early industry expectations, indicating that range-extender and plug-in hybrid technologies have evolved from being mere transitional solutions to becoming mainstream market choices.

Emerging Trends in the Range-Extended Vehicle Market

From a product positioning perspective, range-extender technology is expanding from the high-end market into the mass market. Initially, brands such as Li Auto and LanTu focused on range-extender vehicles, but now even the “national vehicle,” Wuling Hongguang, has introduced a range-extended version. This shift indicates that technical barriers are lowering, and the supply chain is maturing. Notably, the thermal efficiency of domestically produced range-extender engines has surpassed 42%, bringing the energy efficiency of range-extender systems close to that of pure electric vehicles.

However, it is important to note that the success of range-extended vehicles does not imply that the “Li Auto model” can be easily replicated. Beyond its choice of technical route, Li Auto’s success is attributed to its precise product definition (targeting family users), exceptional smart experience, and unique brand marketing. Subsequent car manufacturers that merely copy the technical framework without focusing on the overall user experience may fall into a trap of homogeneous competition.

Will Pure Electric Vehicles Disappear? Is Solid-State Battery the Ultimate Answer?

In light of the strong emergence of range-extended vehicles, many are questioning whether pure electric vehicles are on the brink of extinction. My assessment is that pure electric vehicles will not only survive but will also experience a renaissance following breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology.

The primary issue hindering the widespread adoption of pure electric vehicles is battery technology. Traditional lithium-ion batteries face energy density limitations (currently maxing out around 300Wh/kg), charging speed constraints, and safety risks. While these issues may not significantly impact urban short-distance commuting, they become critical when considering long-distance travel or commercial applications. Solid-state batteries are widely believed to be the breakthrough technology for the next generation of batteries. Compared to liquid electrolyte lithium-ion batteries, solid-state batteries offer three main advantages:

1. Higher Safety: They eliminate the flammability risk associated with liquid electrolytes and significantly reduce the probability of thermal runaway.
2. Doubled Energy Density: Theoretical values can exceed 500Wh/kg, easily achieving a range of over 1000 kilometers.
3. Faster Charging Speeds: They support ultra-fast charging, reducing charging time to under 10 minutes.

Industry developments are also promising. According to projections from the Electric Vehicle 100 Forum, shipments of semi-solid-state batteries are expected to exceed 10GWh by 2025, and full solid-state batteries are anticipated to be available in small batches within the next 2-3 years. Car manufacturers are taking aggressive steps: Changan Automobile has released a solid-state battery with an energy density of 400Wh/kg and a range exceeding 1500 kilometers; BYD aims for mass production of solid-state batteries by 2027; and Mercedes has tested solid-state batteries achieving an energy density of 450Wh/kg. Once solid-state batteries are produced at scale, the core competitiveness of pure electric vehicles will improve qualitatively. At that point, the “range insurance” value of range-extended vehicles will significantly diminish as solid-state battery electric vehicles will be able to meet nearly all travel scenarios.

This is why mainstream automakers continue to invest heavily in pure electric platforms—their bets are placed on the timeline for breakthroughs in battery technology. However, technological replacement will not happen overnight. From an industrial perspective, even if solid-state batteries achieve commercialization between 2027-2030, their high costs will limit their initial application range. High-end models are likely to be the first to adopt these batteries, with gradual penetration into the mainstream market. This transitional period could last 5-8 years, during which range-extender and plug-in hybrid technologies will still hold considerable viability.

Predictions for China’s New Energy Vehicle Market in the Next Five Years

Based on current technological developments and market dynamics, we can boldly predict the evolution of China’s new energy vehicle market from 2025-2030:

1. Diversified Technological Routes Will Become the New Norm: The binary thinking of “pure electric vs. range-extender” will be broken, resulting in a more diversified technological landscape:
   • Urban Commuter Vehicles: Mainly low-cost pure electric vehicles, with a range of 400-500 kilometers sufficient for needs.
   • Family Main Vehicles: Range-extender and plug-in hybrids will dominate, balancing daily electric use and long-distance travel.
   • High-End Performance Vehicles: Gradually shifting towards solid-state battery pure electrics, emphasizing extreme experience.
   • Commercial Vehicles: Hydrogen fuel cells and pure electric vehicles will develop concurrently, depending on application scenarios.
2. Price Segmentation Will Intensify:
   • Under 100,000: Micro pure electric vehicles will continue to dominate, although facing challenges from sodium-ion battery models.
   • 100,000-200,000: This price range will become the main battlefield for range-extender and plug-in hybrids, with fierce competition over cost-performance ratios.
   • 200,000-300,000: Intelligent configurations will become the key differentiator, with a mix of various technological routes.
   • Over 300,000: Solid-state battery pure electric vehicles will start to penetrate this market, redefining luxury cars.
3. Intelligence Will Become Core Competitiveness: As the differences in powertrains gradually diminish, the intelligent experience will become a crucial factor in consumer decision-making. It is expected that by 2025, the penetration rate of L2+ driver assistance systems will reach 65%, and smart cockpit penetration will reach 76%. AI technology will be fully integrated into vehicles, ranging from smart driving to voice interaction and personalized services, marking the true arrival of the software-defined vehicle era. This means that relying solely on the technical advantages of range extenders or pure electric vehicles will no longer suffice; car manufacturers must create comprehensive intelligent experiences.
4. Accelerated Internationalization: China’s new energy vehicle exports are projected to reach 1.4 million vehicles by 2025, entering a new phase of globalization. Unlike early simple exports, the new internationalization emphasizes localized production, technological cooperation, and ecological co-construction. Brands like BYD and NIO have established production bases in Europe and Southeast Asia; this “global R&D, Chinese innovation, overseas manufacturing” model will become mainstream.

How Should Consumers Choose?

Faced with this complex technological landscape, how can ordinary consumers make informed choices? I suggest selecting the most suitable technology route based on individual driving scenarios and budget:

• Urban Commuters (daily distance < 50 km): Pure electric vehicles are the best choice: convenient charging and the lowest operating costs.
  • Recommended models: BYD Dolphin, Wuling Bingo (A0 class pure electric).
  • Avoid pitfalls: Focus on real-world range; northern users should prefer models with heat pump air conditioning.
• Single Family Vehicle Users: Range-extended or plug-in hybrids are more reliable: they balance daily electric use and long-distance travel.
  • Recommended models: Li Auto L Series, BYD Song PLUS DM-i.
  • Avoid pitfalls: Monitor fuel consumption in electric mode; choose range extenders with thermal efficiency > 40%.
• Business/High-End Users: Consider waiting for solid-state battery vehicles, which will gradually be released between 2025-2027.
  • Currently available options: NIO ET7, Mercedes EQE (high-end pure electric).
  • Avoid pitfalls: Pay attention to supercharging network coverage; prioritize 800V high-voltage platforms.
• Off-Road/Outdoor Enthusiasts: Range-extended or PHEV vehicles are more reliable: they allow for refueling in remote areas.
  • Recommended models: Tank 500 Hi4-T, BJ40 range-extended version.
  • Avoid pitfalls: Choose models with large fuel tank designs; pure electric range > 150 km is more practical.

In Conclusion: There Is No Ultimate Answer, Only Continuous Evolution

Looking back at the development of new energy vehicles, from the early “oil-to-electric” transition to dedicated platforms and ranges extending from 200 kilometers to over 1000 kilometers, the speed of technological iteration has exceeded expectations. The explosion of range-extender technology is not accidental; it reflects the market’s return to pragmatism. Meanwhile, breakthroughs in solid-state batteries are not the end but the beginning of the next technological cycle. As Li Xiang, the founder of Li Auto, once said, “What users need is not the technology itself but the value it brings.” This statement encapsulates the essence of the automotive industry’s transformation—behind the competition of technological routes lies the precise matching of user needs and usage scenarios.

In the foreseeable future, China’s new energy vehicle market will exhibit a pattern of “pure electric dominance with diverse coexistence,” where no single technology can meet all scenarios. As consumers, we need not succumb to the anxiety of “either/or” choices; as industry observers, we should appreciate the innovative vitality that comes from this technological diversity. After all, the more robust the competition, the better the products, ultimately benefiting the users.

Finally, here’s a thought-provoking question: When solid-state batteries become widely available and charging is as convenient as refueling, will range-extended vehicles become like flip phones of the past, a unique artifact of a transitional period in technology? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!