The price of photovoltaic modules has surged to 0.8 yuan/W, yet investors still find it challenging to secure supplies.
According to a report by Economic Observer, as of March 19, 2025, photovoltaic modules, which saw continuous price drops in 2024, have now become highly sought after. Li Lei, a prominent figure working at a leading domestic photovoltaic company, has vividly experienced this shift. Before the Lunar New Year, the price of photovoltaic modules had dipped below 0.6 yuan/W.
By early March 2025, the spot prices for distributed photovoltaic modules had risen to between 0.7 yuan/W and 0.8 yuan/W, with some high-efficiency products from top companies nearing 0.9 yuan/W. The price adjustments for photovoltaic modules have shifted from weekly changes to daily fluctuations, and projections suggest that mainstream component prices may soon exceed 0.9 yuan/W.
Xu Biao, a distributed photovoltaic investor in the Central Plains region, noted that in 2024, photovoltaic component prices steadily declined from over 1 yuan/W at the start of the year to a low point by year-end, with some components even dropping below 0.6 yuan/W. By the end of 2024, some manufacturers resorted to discount sales to clear out inventory. Xu has observed that the market conditions for photovoltaic components in 2025 are markedly different from those in 2024. Since the beginning of the year, following the impact of the “4·30” policy, the supply-demand dynamics have changed, leading to a gradual rise in prices. He believes that the current price increase is driven primarily by a surge in demand due to a “rush to install” trend and the previous contraction of inventories by companies.
On January 17, 2025, the National Energy Administration issued the “Management Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation” (referred to as the “Measures”). This policy establishes a cut-off between new and existing projects based on the date of April 30: projects that are connected to the grid before this date and are under 20 MW can still sell electricity at full price, while those connected afterward can only opt for self-consumption or partial grid connection. Data from InfoLink, a global photovoltaic data organization, indicates that recent supply from manufacturers has been affected by cautious production schedules in January and February, reduced inventories, and increased domestic demand, resulting in shortages for some popular product models.
Currently, some component prices have risen to 0.8 yuan/W. Photovoltaic investors find themselves in a race to secure installations before the April 30 deadline for full-price grid connections. In March, Xu and his team are accelerating project timelines to meet this policy window and secure higher electricity prices and returns.
Additionally, according to a notice jointly released by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, starting from May 31, 2025, all new distributed photovoltaic projects must be traded through the electricity spot market, marking the end of subsidies. This “5·31” policy signifies the date when new projects must fully enter the market.
Under the “rush to install” backdrop, Xu mentioned that high-priced orders are prioritized for supply, while lower-priced orders may face delays. Li Lei acknowledged that some products previously considered inefficient, overpriced, or outdated are now gaining attention in the current environment where supplies are hard to come by. Some clients are even willing to accept these less preferred products to ensure they can secure immediate stock.
Due to the variety in order specifications, companies must flexibly allocate resources based on inventory. The current market shortage has led customers to prefer models that offer more reliable delivery. An industry insider explained that the tightening supply of photovoltaic components is becoming increasingly evident, with upstream material suppliers (such as silicon manufacturers, battery factories, and glass frame producers) also facing surging demand, resulting in a scarcity of raw materials and rising prices. This cost transmission effect forces component manufacturers to increase their product prices to accommodate the higher procurement costs.
According to sources from LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH), the company has recently launched the Hi-MO X10 anti-dust module due to a surge in orders in March. The production capacity for April has already been fully booked. Li Lei stated that the supply of photovoltaic components is currently tight amid the rush to install. For instance, in normal circumstances, the top five companies in China’s distributed photovoltaic sector would ship about 5 GW of modules per month. However, due to the installation rush in February 2025, the order volume surged, and monthly shipments could reach between 25 GW and 30 GW, nearly four times that of the same period last year. He anticipates that this tight supply situation may persist throughout the first quarter. Even with suitable pricing, it may still be difficult for photovoltaic investors to purchase immediate stock.
According to LONGi sources, the market has recently favored selecting more efficient photovoltaic modules, such as the LONGi Hi-MO X10 series, which boasts high efficiency. Given the limited roof space, high-efficiency modules can achieve greater installed capacity within the same area. For example, on a 10,000 square meter roof, the Hi-MO X10 anti-dust module (660W) generates 189,000 more kWh annually compared to the TOPCon module (630W), leading to an additional 113,000 yuan in revenue, translating to over 3 million yuan in extra income over 30 years. This indicates that a single roof can accommodate an additional 6% of module capacity, effectively doubling its value.
Moreover, at the recent Shandong Solar Utilization Conference, the Hi-MO X10 module was praised as a “three-proof” module due to its HPBC 2.0 battery technology, which provides fire resistance, shadow resistance, and dust resistance, making it highly popular among commercial photovoltaic owners. According to LONGi representatives, the product’s capacity for March and April was completely booked on the day of the launch event.
In the current market environment, Xu noted that their company is leaning more towards high-efficiency modules when selecting photovoltaic components. Despite a potentially longer payback period for projects, the company is committed to ensuring long-term returns and competitiveness by thoroughly evaluating components based on their efficiency. For instance, Xu’s team prefers the LONGi Hi-MO X10 product, even though its price is around 0.85 yuan/W, which is 0.1 yuan/W higher than competing products. The higher efficiency translates directly into economic benefits. In the long run, despite the initial investment being slightly higher for the Hi-MO X10, its long-term generation capacity and economic benefits make it a highly attractive investment, offering excellent value for money.
Industry insiders have noted that this trend indicates that investors increasingly favor advanced capacity or high-efficiency components. Driven by the policies surrounding the critical deadlines of “4·30” and “5·31,” the demand for high-efficiency components has intensified, further exacerbating the tension in the supply of photovoltaic modules.
In light of the “rush to install,” Li Lei remarked that for distributors, as long as they can obtain supplies promptly, even with slight cost increases, they can still profit from sales, sometimes even at higher margins than last year. On October 18, 2024, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a statement urging companies to halt excessive competition within the industry. According to industry research, the lowest production cost for photovoltaic modules in October 2024 was 0.68 yuan/W (excluding depreciation), which is already below the cost price. Despite the association’s call for companies to stop such practices, overcapacity, advancements in photovoltaic technology, and continuous cost reductions have led companies to engage in price competition to secure orders.
Recently, with the emergence of the installation rush, upstream materials in the photovoltaic supply chain have experienced some price increases, and reports indicate that the current lowest production cost for photovoltaic modules has risen above 0.72 yuan. Li Lei remarked that with the onset of the price surge, straightforward price competition is no longer effective. In the future, companies will focus more on product performance and value, shifting their emphasis towards “product innovation, efficiency enhancement, and creative solutions.” He believes that since February, the photovoltaic industry has entered a “rush to install,” leading to skyrocketing demand for components, primarily a short-term phenomenon. This surge in demand is not due to insufficient capacity but is a result of concentrated procurement of high-efficiency components driven by policy changes. As the “rush to install” progresses, Li Lei anticipates that market demand will gradually decline by June 2025. Subsequently, as outdated capacities are phased out and supply-demand dynamics improve, component prices are expected to stabilize.
(Names Li Lei and Xu Biao are pseudonyms as per the interview subjects’ requests.)
