The solar photovoltaic (PV) industry is currently undergoing subtle changes driven by policy incentives and technological advancements. Since 2025, numerous PV companies have revealed investment plans or project developments, focusing on new technologies such as perovskite and BC batteries, as well as integrated component layouts. Concurrently, the market reform of electricity prices for new energy sources has spurred a rush for distributed solar installations, leading to a long-awaited increase in industry chain prices. Industry insiders believe that the current expansion by companies in new technologies reflects the industry’s continued trend toward innovation. The diversification of solar technologies also helps alleviate “involution” competition and accelerates the removal of outdated capacities. The market size and share of distributed solar energy are expected to grow significantly in the future.
Focusing on New Technologies and Integration
On March 18, Hangzhou Corin announced plans to raise no more than 1.46 billion yuan for a 1GW high-efficiency perovskite solar cell module project and to supplement the company’s working capital. On March 15, GCL-Poly Energy Holdings announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Suzhou GCL, intends to sign a joint venture agreement with Risen Energy to establish Xuzhou Xinyao New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. This investment will indirectly lay out the capacity for high-performance solar cells, integrating its 30GW module capacity with 16GW battery capacity for flexible resource allocation. Furthermore, GCL-Poly will actively coordinate the upgrade of some production lines at Xinyao to BC battery capacity to seize opportunities in the BC market. These investment trends indicate a clear shift towards new technologies within the solar industry.
Li Ting, Director of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stated that historically, efficiency improvements and cost reductions driven by technological innovation have been central to the development of China’s solar industry. In the future, growth in the solar sector will depend on breakthroughs in key technologies, enhancing production efficiency, upgrading product performance, and further reducing production costs.
On February 27, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association officially released the “China Photovoltaic Industry Development Roadmap (2024-2025)”, which includes new indicators related to XBC batteries and modules, an increase in the market share of grid line printing technology, and new efficiency metrics for rigid/flexible/perovskite-silicon tandem and perovskite-perovskite tandem solar cells. The association aims to reflect the latest technological progress through dynamic adjustments and clearly define development directions for industry upgrades.
Shi Zhenwei, chief analyst for photovoltaics at Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), noted in an interview that the current expansion of PV companies is concentrated in new technology areas, a necessary move for enhancing competitiveness. Innovations in perovskite and BC technologies can create more growth opportunities and serve as a means to clear outdated capacities, fostering industry progress. Additionally, several previously announced projects have commenced construction or production. In mid-January, TCL Zhonghuan’s 10GW high-efficiency solar module smart factory’s first phase officially entered mass production, marking a crucial step in the company’s integrated supply chain strategy.
Shi emphasized that advocating for capacity clearing does not imply that companies cannot expand. The healthy development of the solar industry requires ongoing investment in advanced capacities while continually phasing out outdated ones. Currently, PV companies maintain a cautious approach towards expansion.
Policy-Induced Rush for Distributed Solar Installations
After experiencing a year of price declines across the entire solar industry chain, there have recently been rare reports of price increases. According to industry agency InfoLink on March 20, silicon wafer prices have risen again, with expectations of further increases, anticipating prices to reach 1.23 yuan per piece for 183N wafers and 1.45 yuan for 210RN wafers. Component prices had already begun to rise in February, with large transactions occurring this week at prices ranging from 0.73 to 0.75 yuan per watt. Industry experts believe this price surge is largely driven by the rush for distributed solar installations.
Since January, the release of various policies, including the “Management Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation” and the “Notice on Deepening Market-oriented Reforms of Electricity Prices for New Energy to Promote High-quality Development,” has set critical deadlines of April 30 and May 31, fueling the rush for distributed solar projects. According to InfoLink’s research on recent shipment conditions for component manufacturers, domestic orders have indeed seen slight growth, mainly concentrated on distributed projects, particularly for commercial and industrial projects. This has led to an increase of about one cent per watt in domestic spot prices for distributed components, with low-price sales continuing to decline. Some manufacturers have even explicitly stated that orders below 0.66 yuan per watt will see reduced shipments.
In contrast, concentrated projects face limited growth due to the remaining two months until market transactions take effect, leading to expectations of a modest increase in the first half of the year, with major installations concentrated in the second half. Several publicly listed companies have recently discussed their expectations and potential impacts of the current rush for distributed solar installations in investor relations activities. Tongwei Co., Ltd. indicated in its February research report that, given the industry’s current situation, the arrival of the March peak season and the implementation of new energy electricity pricing policies will likely lead to a significant increase in component production in March, following industry trends.
New Energy Technology disclosed that the rush for distributed solar power stations, driven by market-oriented electricity pricing reforms, has resulted in a substantial increase in orders for its small capacity SVG products, with concentrated deliveries expected in April and May. Trina Solar views the domestic market reforms as clearly defining electricity prices between existing and new projects, driving up demand for installations in the first half of the year. Shi Zhenwei believes that, in the long run, the market scale and share of distributed solar power generation will continue to rise. In the short term, this year’s growth in the distributed solar market will be primarily concentrated in the first half, with anticipated dips in the third quarter, while the second half will still support demand for concentrated projects.
