Analysis of Industry Policy and Its Impact on Production Chain Pricing Trends
On April 1, 2025, the SMM report indicated that the pricing of photovoltaic equipment experienced an overall decline of 2%, with the highest price decrease reaching 2.58%. Despite this downward trend, the average pricing remained stable at around 1%. In terms of specific products, the price of polysilicon saw a significant drop, influenced by various factors including market demand and supply chain dynamics.
According to the latest analysis from TrendForce, the demand for polysilicon in the Chinese market is expected to peak in March and April 2025, driven by government policies aimed at stimulating production. This demand surge may lead to a rebound in the second-quarter pricing of the production chain.
Recent government initiatives have focused on two major policies introduced in January: the “New Policy” and the “Deepening New Energy Development Plan”. These policies aim to enhance the infrastructure for renewable energy and improve the overall quality of energy production. The anticipated capacity for projects connected to the grid by April 30 is still expected to surpass 20MW, while future projects will shift towards self-generated and self-consumed energy models, ensuring greater price stability.
As of May 31, projects connected to the grid are expected to require a certain amount of electricity to ensure profitability, and the pricing dynamics will be adjusted accordingly. The government has indicated that the two policies will significantly influence the market prices.
SMM further reported that the pricing for polysilicon on April 1 ranged from 0.776 to 0.783 yuan per kilogram, with a spot price of 0.78 yuan, reflecting a 20.93% price increase compared to earlier in the month. For different specifications, such as the Topcon 210mm, prices have also shown an upward trend, reaching around 1.55 yuan as of April 1.
Moreover, in the latest pricing analysis, several companies indicated that the demand for polysilicon products has been fluctuating, with some manufacturers reporting a backlog of orders. The market’s overall condition appears to be tightening, with prices poised to continue their upward trajectory based on current demand and production capacity.
In conclusion, as the market adjusts to the new policies and pricing trends, the ongoing fluctuations in polysilicon prices will be closely monitored. The government’s regulatory measures and market dynamics will play a crucial role in shaping the future landscape of the renewable energy sector.
